close
close

Guiltandivy

Source for News

Dawg's path back to the NCAA
Update Information

Dawg's path back to the NCAA

play

Butler hasn't made the NCAA Tournament since 2018. The Bulldogs certainly would have made the tournament in 2020, finishing at No. 5 in the polls before finishing the season at No. 21. The Dawgs' best chances in a challenging tournament The run since the Brad Stevens era never got off the ground as the COVID-19 pandemic forced the cancellation of the 2020 tournament.

Butler suffered two losing seasons under former coach LaVall Jordan in 2021 and 2022 before Thad Matta returned as Butler's coach prior to the 2022-23 season. Matta is just 32-33 in his first two seasons in Indy, but an experienced returning cast and several high-profile incoming transfers make this upcoming season the best chance in years for Butler to return to the Big Dance.

Meet the Butler List: Breaking down the Bulldogs ahead of the 2024-25 season

Here is a breakdown of the schedule for the 2024-25 season.

Non-conference schedule

A strong performance during the non-conference portion would put Butler in excellent position to reach the NCAA Tournament. The Dawgs have games against six teams ranked in the KenPom Preseason Top 100.

The Dawgs' best opportunity to build their resume is the Dec. 7 home game against No. 1-ranked Houston. A win against the Cougars would be a pivotal win for the season and would at least re-establish Butler as a major contender while also putting the top third of the Big East in the spotlight.

Butler's first opportunity to build a resume comes Nov. 15 at home against SMU (75th on KenPom). A preseason game against Merrimack will prepare Butler for its Nov. 28 game against Northwestern (50) in Arizona during the Arizona Tip-Off Tournament. Winning or losing a quality opponent awaits Butler in Mississippi State (47th) or UNLV (97th).

Butler has another preseason game against Eastern Illinois before facing Houston. North Dakota State awaits Butler at home after the Dawgs game in Houston. Butler's final non-conference game is technically a neutral-site game at Gainbridge Fieldhouse's friendly field for the Indy Classic.

Of the six possible top 100 non-conference games, four are at neutral sites or on the road. A win against Houston would likely get Butler into the tournament unless he fails in the middle or end of the season. A 4-1 record against its top-100 opponents would also prepare Butler well for the postseason. Butler can't afford to miss any of its non-conference games against teams outside the preseason top 100. At the very least, Butler will need to beat two of his toughest preseason opponents to stay away from the tournament bubble.

Forecast: I expect Butler to go 8-3 going into Big East play.

Early Big East schedule

The schedulers did Butler no favors when they scheduled the Dawgs' first 10 Big East games. Butler starts the season on the road against Big East title contender Marquette. The next game is at home against reigning national champion UConn. The Dawgs face UConn again five games later, capping a tough stretch of three games in 10 days.

Four of Butler's first 10 games are on the road. Of those four (at Marquette, at St. John's, at Providence and at UConn), it's entirely possible that the Dawgs won't be favored in any of them. Having UConn at home is a bit of a break, followed by Villanova at St. John's and at Providence. The home game against Villanova is one that the Dawgs must win with two difficult road games coming up. Home game against Creighton on Jan. 11, followed by a home game against Seton Hall, is a two-game stretch that could be considered favorable given the difficulty of the early start to conference play.

The trip to Hartford to face UConn will be Butler's toughest game of the season, other than the road game against Houston. Hosting DePaul is a must. At home, Marquette is a mess.

Forecast: I think Butler is 5-5 in its first 10 Big East games, 13-8 overall.

Second half of the Big East schedule

The second half of Butler's Big East schedule is significantly tighter than the first. There are winnable games on the road to Georgetown and Seton Hall. Getting Providence at home is favorable, followed by a home game against Georgetown.

Competing against rival Xavier is always a challenge. The Bulldogs will play the Musketeers on the road on February 18th. The Bluejays return three starters (Steven Ashworth, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Mason Miller) in a squad that always plays a high-caliber offense. I think the Dawgs could be on the bubble by mid-March, but a road win against Creighton would be a great chance for another resume-building win.

Forecast: I think Butler will finish the season with a strong record of 8-2 in their last ten games. The Bulldogs will finish the regular season 21-10 and enter the Big East Tournament on the right side of the bubble.

LEAVE A RESPONSE

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *